There are almost infinite schools of thought about how to bet on the Kentucky Derby. Strategies have been devised and revised and “revolutionized” and devised again over the last century and a half, and nobody has yet to find any empirical “solution” when it comes to picking the right ponies.
That said, the strongest horses are usually easy to identify in the weeks leading up to the first leg of the Triple Crown, and it’s generally easy enough to take a fistful of dollars, pick a few favorites, and make a few dollars more.
But the real magic of horse racing betting lies not in the straight bets, but in the exotic bets, which are all variants of the familiar parlay wager type. Still, before you place any horse race bet (most especially at the Kentucky Derby), you’ll need to understand both the pari-mutuel betting system and how to read the Kentucky Derby odds. Once you master these two basic concepts, you’ll be able to make informed betting decisions on not just the action at Churchill Downs but at any racetrack in the world.
Understanding Pari-Mutuel Betting
Pari-mutuel betting, also called pool betting, is different from standard sports betting in a few significant ways. The main thing about understanding pari-mutuel betting is that when you place these sorts of bets, you will not know your payouts until all bets are in and the book on the race is actually closed.
With pari-mutuel betting, winning tickets are paid out proportionally based on the total handle for a given bet type accepted by the racebook in question. For example, every Win bet placed goes into a pool, and the winning Win tickets are paid out from that pool. Trifecta bets go into the trifecta pool, Pick 3s go into the Pick 3 pool, and so on. (Some racebooks may draw from a single pool split up by percentages of bets placed per type, but the result is effectively the same.) Traditional sports wagers, on the other hand, have their payouts locked-in at the time you place your bets, which is calculated via the normal moneyline system.
Handicapping The Kentucky Derby
Another key difference to horse racing betting is that there is no handicapping in the traditional sense – i.e. there are no spreads or “head starts” on the race clocks or anything like that. However, the term is still used, and handicapping the Kentucky Derby is a large part of a balanced winning strategy.
In Derby betting (and all horse race betting), “handicapping” refers to one’s ability to study the course conditions, horse presentations, and various other variables leading up to the race, especially on the actual day of the contest. If you’re at the Kentucky Derby itself, it can be quite easy to effectively handicap the race, while bettors using online solutions will have to trust their various news sources to provide them with up-to-date information that might have an impact on the event’s outcome.
How To Read Kentucky Derby Odds
If you’re used to standard sports betting at a legal online sportsbook, you’re undoubtedly familiar with the American moneyline system of betting odds. However, aside from futures betting, horse racing wagers do not use moneylines, as the pari-mutuel, pool-based nature of their postings preclude locked-in payouts before all bets are in. As such, you’ll need to know how to read Kentucky Derby odds, which won’t tell you exactly how much you stand to win, but are simple estimations of what the betting action currently supports.
When you read Kentucky Derby odds (or any horse racing betting odds), you will see them posted in a fractional or “ratio” format. For example, let’s say the following five (imaginary) horses are posted atop the betting boards at a legal online racebook. Next to their names, you will see their odds, which will usually be presented in two different ways but mean the exact same thing.
- San Antonio Spurt 5/1 (5:1)
- Oakland Rider 8/1 (8:1)
- Gelding State Warrior 10/1 (10:1)
- Jack’s Villain Son 15/1 (15:1)
- Philadelphia Filly 20/1 (20:1)
Here, you can see that San Antonio Spurt is a 5/1 (read as “5-to-1”) favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. While this technically does translate to a moneyline of +500, it is by no means a guarantee that your payout will be $5 on a $1 bet. This is a good-faith, live estimation by your racebook to post what they believe the odds will end up as per the bets coming in. It is, in effect, the trend of the public’s wagering on San Antonio Spurt.
Further down the line, other horses are listed the same way, but with longer odds. Take the first and third place horses. Since San Antonio Spurt has 5/1 odds and Gelding State Warrior has 10/1 odds, you can assume that San Antonio Spurt is getting around twice the action that Gelding State Warrior is. Remember, when it comes to reading Kentucky Derby odds, these are estimates, not guarantees. However, the racebooks are very good at getting the lines right so that a winning ticket’s payout will be more or less in line with the posted odds at the time that wagering closes.
Kentucky Derby Wager Types
There are a number of Kentucky Derby wager types to consider before betting on the ponies, but they should all be familiar to anyone who has participated in horse racing betting before. There are two betting categories to consider: straight bets and exotic bets, with the former being easier to win but offering smaller payouts and the latter being far more difficult but offering huge sums to any bettor lucky enough to hit on them.
Kentucky Derby Straight Bets
Essentially, straight bets in horse racing are the simplest wagers on the board, and these are comprised of Win, Place, and Show bets. Because these Kentucky Derby straight bets are the most common wager types, they also tend to have the most limited payouts, as the pools always have tens of thousands of winning tickets, or perhaps even more.
- Win – Pick the winning horse. Chances to win: Decent.
- Place – Pick a horse that finishes first or second. Chances to win: Favorable.
- Show – Pick a horse that finishes first, second, or third. Chances to win: Extremely favorable.
Kentucky Derby Exotic Bets
Exotic bets are any other kind of horse racing wager that isn’t in the above “straight bets” category. These are all parlay-type wagers, where multiple horses and finishing places are combined in one big bet. Some are easier than others, but all Kentucky Derby exotic bets are difficult compared to Win, Place, and Show bets. Of course, as such, they all have substantially better payouts as well.
- Quinella – Pick two horses that finish first and second, in either order. Chances to win: Decent.
- Exacta – Pick two horses that finish first and second, in order. Chances to win: Difficult.
- Trifecta – Pick three horses that finish first, second, and third, in order. Chances to win: Very difficult.
- Superfecta – Pick four horses that finish first, second, third, and fourth, in order. Chances to win: Extremely difficult.
It is important to note that all of the above parlay wagers can be modified or mitigated by using one of three horse racing betting techniques. These are the Key bet, the Box bet, and the Wheel bet.
The Key Bet - To “key a horse” simply means that, in a given exotic wager, you can choose one pony to finish in a specific spot and then pick the others to finish in the leftover spots in any order. This reduces the payouts possible, but it increases your chances to win.
The Box Bet – To “box a horse,” you simply pick the horses you think will win an exotic wager in any order. The cost of the bet goes up with every extra horse you box, but a box effectively prevents you from having to place several hundred bets to cover all possible combinations from a selection of horses. (The math behind this is covered here.)
The Wheel Bet – This is another term for the horse-keying process, but it merely refers to the wager’s included field rather than the keyed horse itself
There are other types of Kentucky Derby exotic bets (the Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6, etc.), and each of them has varying degrees of difficulty. The Pick 6 is probably the most difficult type of horse betting wager to win, as it requires you to pick the winners of 6 consecutive races being held at the Kentucky Derby. Often, your racebook will select “qualifying races,” which makes it even more difficult to get this bet type correct.
Once you know how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, all you have left to do is find a place to place your wagers. If you’re in a state that supports on-site horse racing betting, you can go to your local track or off-track betting (OTB) location and put your money on the line. If Kentucky Derby betting is not available in your area – or if you simply wish to wager from your smartphone or home computer – you should join a reputable legal online racebook ASAP to make sure you get in on all the Derby action.
